Trumped-Up Charges, Conflict, Deceit, a Plague, and an Angry Mob — Today, we take bonds as an investment vehicle for granted. Bonds — along with stocks — are known as traditional investments because they’ve been around for many centuries. Governments borrow when current spending needs exceed current revenue. Investors tend to get steady returns. So it’s a win-win. Bonds are considered…

Stocks are much cheaper, tend to bounce back after a bad year, and ‘year 3’ of the presidential cycle is overwhelmingly positive — High inflation. Increasing interest rates. Recession fears. These are all good reasons why one should be cautious when investing in stocks during the upcoming year. Last year I predicted why 2022 was probably going to be a bad year for stocks. That turned out to be a good call, with…

It Pays to Be a Healthy Sceptic — He was well-respected in the industry, as head of a major exchange. He was able to attract billions of dollars in investments. He was known for his major philanthropic initiatives. And then his world suddenly collapsed, wiping out billions for his investors. This portrayal aptly describes Sam Bankman-Fried (also known…

Inflation-indexed bonds, including TIPS, reinvented in the 20th century, help protect investor returns — In the late 1770s, the Revolutionary War wasn’t going well for America. The British Army was making gains in America’s south, and the British Navy was blockading the eastern coast. U.S. Army morale was low as the troops were poorly clothed, poorly fed, and often in need of medical attention…

An award-winning study shows the importance of luck versus talent — Every October, prominent academics in their ivory towers silently wonder if this could be their year, to capture the most prestigious accolade of all, a Nobel Prize. The announcements are followed by black-tie events in Stockholm in December. Less well known is a ceremony that has taken place each year…

A feel-good conspiracy theory following October 1987’s Black Monday — This month marks the 35th anniversary of one of the most famous events on Wall Street. I’ve previously written about the worst U.S. stock market crash in history, known as Black Monday, when stocks dropped on average by over 22 percent on Monday, October 19, 1987. The next day, markets…

After a Swindler Almost Destroyed American Express, Buffett Saw the Importance of Long-Term Value Versus Short-Term Profit — The story of the Great Salad Oil Swindle can be traced to June 1960, when an anonymous tipster, known as “the Voice,” raised concerns with The American Express Company (Amex) about what was really in tank number 6006 in a warehouse in Bayonne, New Jersey — and it wasn’t just…

An NFT of the New York Mets retired player’s “most famous sports contract of all time” — I just bought my first non-fungible token, commonly known as an NFT. If you know me, you may be surprised. I recently wrote a book with Andrew Lo, In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, where we interviewed ten luminaries, include six Nobel laureates, as we traced the development of modern…

If you don’t have a view that’s different from the market’s view, you’re better off as a passive investor — After spending decades dedicated to investments research, I’ve come up with some pithy advice for all investors (despite my disclaimer that I don’t provide financial advice). I call it “Steve’s Surefire Method for Earning Millions of Dollars Through Investing” and I’m sure you’ll agree that it is surefire. …